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US Stock Market Sector Analysis – Thursday, March 20, 2025 BEARISH

The US stock market traded with a risk-off tone today after another stretch of multi-sector weakness left 14 sectors lower and just six above their 50-day moving averages. The Mag 7 (AI Spenders) group was essentially flat on the day but remains a material drag, down -13.3% over 20 days and -15.5% versus the 50-day, with NVIDIA (NVDA) $118.36 +0.9% and Microsoft (MSFT) $383.07 -0.3% acting as mixed anchors. Cyclical pockets like Energy (+0.4%) and Healthcare (+1.1%) outperformed while IT Services (-5.4%) and Analog & Embedded Chips (-3.6%) led declines. Notable movers included Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $174.89 +2.1% and IBM $235.68 -3.6%, which drove sector flows into Chip Supply Chain and away from IT Services respectively.

Market Condition Dashboard

US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Wait & Watch
4.24%
falling
Impact
Confidence
Crude Oil (WTI)
Neutral
$68.26
+1.6% 1D
Impact
Confidence
VIX (Fear Index)
Normal Range
19.8
-0.5% 1D
Impact
Confidence
Tracked Stocks Breadth (50DMA)
Strong Cash-Deploy Signal
31%
21 of 68 above 50DMA · +4.4pp 5D
Impact
Confidence
Put/Call Ratio (5D)
Caution
0.75
Call-Heavy · stable
Impact
Confidence

Signal analysis only — not investment advice

Sector Performance (Base=100)

AI and Technology Sector Analysis

AI and large-scale enterprise digital transformation remain the thematic center, but today's price action underscores a rotation off the most extended names as the Mag 7 underperformance broadens. NVIDIA (NVDA) $118.36 and Meta (META) $583.64 are holding short-term support even as the group is -13.3% over 20 days, while weakness in Chip Supply Chain and Infrastructure suggests supply-chain and capex timing risks are constraining further multiple expansion. Investors should watch ARM Holdings (ARM) $119.07 and TSMC (TSM) $174.89 for signs of renewed hardware demand and monitor Enterprise Software names for discounting of SaaS growth expectations.

US Stock Sector Overview

Sector 1D 5D 20D vs 50MA
Mag 7 (AI Spenders) -0.1% -2.1% -13.3% BELOW
Chip Supply Chain +0.3% +1.5% -11.9% BELOW
Infrastructure -0.8% +0.4% -16.4% BELOW
Enterprise Software -0.1% -0.6% -12.0% BELOW
Finance +0.5% +3.4% -9.6% BELOW
Healthcare +1.1% +4.1% +3.3% ABOVE
Retail -0.8% -0.2% -11.5% BELOW
IT Services -5.4% -3.8% -12.2% BELOW
Airlines -1.1% +0.5% -22.2% BELOW
Hospitality & Travel -0.6% +1.7% -9.7% BELOW
Food & Restaurant +0.1% +1.8% -4.9% BELOW
Logistics -0.4% +0.9% -1.0% BELOW
Industrial +0.2% -0.2% -0.5% BELOW
Cybersecurity -1.2% +2.7% -3.5% BELOW
Chip Equipment -0.2% +0.2% -6.7% BELOW
Data Center REITs -0.1% +1.8% -7.3% BELOW
Utilities +0.7% -1.2% +2.0% ABOVE
Energy +0.4% +4.3% +4.9% ABOVE
Defense & Aerospace -0.8% +1.7% +8.4% ABOVE
Telecom -0.5% +0.5% +0.1% ABOVE
Media & Entertainment -1.2% +1.9% -7.1% BELOW
Biotech -0.9% -2.3% +0.5% ABOVE
Materials -0.4% +0.4% -2.6% BELOW
Analog & Embedded Chips -3.6% -1.1% -13.2% BELOW

Sector Strength

Healthcare +1.1% 20d: +3.3%
UnitedHealth (UNH) +1.6% (20d: +10.1%), Eli Lilly (LLY) +0.7% (20d: -3.6%)
Utilities +0.7% 20d: +2.0%
NextEra Energy (NEE) +0.9% (20d: +0.2%), Duke Energy (DUK) +0.7% (20d: +4.0%), Southern Co (SO) +0.4% (20d: +1.8%)
Finance +0.5% 20d: -9.6%
Goldman Sachs (GS) +1.0% (20d: -9.6%) [<50MA], JPMorgan (JPM) -0.0% (20d: -9.5%) [<50MA]
Energy +0.4% 20d: +4.9%
Chevron (CVX) +0.4% (20d: +5.0%), Exxon Mobil (XOM) +0.4% (20d: +4.7%)
Chip Supply Chain +0.3% 20d: -11.9%
TSMC (TSM) +2.1% (20d: -10.1%) [<50MA], ARM Holdings (ARM) +1.0% (20d: -17.8%) [<50MA], Marvell (MRVL) +1.0% (20d: -32.1%) [<50MA]

Sector Warnings

IT Services -5.4% 20d: -12.2% CRITICAL
Accenture (ACN) -7.3% (20d: -17.4%) [<50MA], IBM -3.6% (20d: -6.9%) [<50MA]
Analog & Embedded Chips -3.6% 20d: -13.2% CRITICAL
Microchip Technology (MCHP) -6.5% (20d: -15.9%) [<50MA], Texas Instruments (TXN) -0.6% (20d: -10.6%) [<50MA]
Cybersecurity -1.2% 20d: -3.5%
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -1.9% (20d: -3.7%) [<50MA], CrowdStrike (CRWD) -1.6% (20d: -9.3%) [<50MA], Zscaler (ZS) -0.2% (20d: +2.5%)
Media & Entertainment -1.2% 20d: -7.1%
Disney (DIS) -1.4% (20d: -9.0%) [<50MA], Netflix (NFLX) -0.9% (20d: -5.2%) [<50MA]
Airlines -1.1% 20d: -22.2% CRITICAL
Delta (DAL) -1.7% (20d: -21.6%) [<50MA], United (UAL) -0.5% (20d: -22.8%) [<50MA]

Sector Deep Dive

Chip Supply Chain: The sector eked out a +0.3% gain today led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $174.89 +2.1% and ARM Holdings (ARM) $119.07 +1.0%, but the 50-day context remains constructive to the downside with the group -12.3% vs its 50-day and flagged [HIGH] after falling -11.9% over 20 days. TSM's move speaks to selective strength in foundry exposure even as Analog & Embedded Chips sit at -7.9% vs 50-day and names like Microchip Technology (MCHP) $49.27 -6.5% continue to underperform, underscoring bifurcation across wafer fabs and legacy mixed-signal suppliers over the prior 50 trading sessions.

IT Services & Enterprise Software: IT Services led intraday losses with a -5.4% sector print and bellwether Accenture (ACN) $291.92 -7.3% and IBM $235.68 -3.6% puncturing relative strength. Enterprise Software was marginally negative (-0.1%) with Palantir (PLTR) $87.39 +1.5% outpacing ServiceNow (NOW) $164.82 -2.4%; however, both groups sit below their 50-day trends (Enterprise Software -4.7% vs 50-day, IT Services -2.9% vs 50-day) and are included in active [HIGH] alerts after double-digit 20-day declines in some constituents.

Healthcare & Insurance: Healthcare showed resilience, rising +1.1% with UnitedHealth (UNH) $494.45 +1.6% leading gains as the sector remains comfortably above its 50-day (+4.5% vs 50-day). The outperformance contrasts with broader market weakness and suggests defensive rotation into quality earnings and cash-flow stability; watch UNH for leadership continuity over the next 50-day window while Biotech (-0.9% today) still sits above its 50-day even as it trades weaker on a 20-day basis.

Energy & Industrials: Energy continued to grind higher (+0.4% today, +9.4% vs 50-day) supporting commodity-linked cyclicals while Industrial names were mixed with Honeywell (HON) $202.97 +1.1% outperforming despite the sector sitting -5.5% vs its 50-day. The divergence highlights selective operational resilience in large-cap industrials even as capital goods demand across the 50-day horizon shows strain, keeping the Industrial sector on watch for rehypothecation into defensives if orders disappoint.

Market Breadth Analysis

US stock market breadth analysis shows 6 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average, while 18 are below. With the majority of sectors below the 50-day MA, medium-term momentum is deteriorating. The 20-day breadth shows 18 sectors in negative territory, pointing to widespread selling pressure.

Interactive Charts

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100

50-Day Sector Performance

1-Day vs 5-Day Sector Change

Active Alerts

HIGH Mag 7 (AI Spenders) down -13.3% over 20 days
HIGH Chip Supply Chain down -11.9% over 20 days
HIGH Infrastructure down -16.4% over 20 days
HIGH Enterprise Software down -12.0% over 20 days
HIGH Retail down -11.5% over 20 days
HIGH IT Services down -12.2% over 20 days
HIGH Airlines down -22.2% over 20 days
HIGH Analog & Embedded Chips down -13.2% over 20 days
HIGH Mag 7 (AI Spenders) down -15.5% over 50 days
HIGH Airlines down -25.0% over 50 days
HIGH 13 sectors declining >5% over 20 days: Mag 7 (AI Spenders), Chip Supply Chain, Infrastructure, Enterprise Software, Finance, Retail, IT Services, Airlines, Hospitality & Travel, Chip Equipment, Data Center REITs, Media & Entertainment, Analog & Embedded Chips
HIGH 5 sectors declining >10% over 50 days: Mag 7 (AI Spenders), Chip Supply Chain, Infrastructure, Airlines, Data Center REITs
MEDIUM TSLA down -30.1% from 20-day high

Stock-Level Detail

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
NVDA $118.36 +0.9% -2.6% -11.8% -15.4% BELOW 0
META $583.64 +0.3% -3.6% -14.2% -5.1% BELOW 0
TSLA $236.26 +0.2% -5.5% -30.1% -40.1% BELOW 0
MSFT $383.07 -0.3% -0.4% -5.2% -8.2% BELOW 1
AMZN $194.95 -0.3% -1.5% -10.0% -12.2% BELOW 1
AAPL $212.97 -0.5% +0.3% -12.8% -11.5% BELOW 1
GOOG $164.38 -0.7% -1.5% -9.0% -16.0% BELOW 1
Chip Supply Chain Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
TSM $174.89 +2.1% +2.3% -10.1% -15.7% BELOW 0
ARM $119.07 +1.0% +1.0% -17.8% -17.5% BELOW 0
MRVL $70.20 +1.0% +2.5% -32.1% -39.3% BELOW 0
AMD $107.14 +0.9% +6.1% -3.3% -15.9% BELOW 0
QCOM $153.77 -0.2% +0.9% -4.0% -1.1% BELOW 1
INTC $23.96 -0.7% -0.4% -3.7% +19.7% ABOVE 2
AVGO $188.71 -2.3% -2.3% -12.6% -16.4% BELOW 1
Infrastructure Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
DELL $96.82 +0.2% +3.4% -15.9% -18.1% BELOW 0
VRT $88.95 -0.1% +1.9% -7.2% -31.8% BELOW 1
HPE $15.66 -0.7% +3.9% -23.2% -27.2% BELOW 1
CSCO $58.64 -0.8% +0.2% -5.3% +2.9% BELOW 1
SMCI $39.10 -2.5% -7.3% -30.3% +13.7% ABOVE 1
Enterprise Software Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
PLTR $87.39 +1.5% +1.3% -13.8% +24.9% BELOW 0
ADBE $389.61 +0.4% -1.3% -12.3% -7.8% BELOW 0
CRM $275.82 -0.1% -0.1% -9.9% -14.1% BELOW 1
NOW $164.82 -2.4% -2.4% -12.2% -21.8% BELOW 1
Finance Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
GS $548.84 +1.0% +3.9% -9.6% -2.5% BELOW 0
JPM $231.97 -0.0% +2.8% -9.5% -1.7% BELOW 1
Healthcare Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
UNH $494.45 +1.6% +4.6% +10.1% -0.1% ABOVE 0
LLY $834.94 +0.7% +3.6% -3.6% +9.1% ABOVE 0
Retail Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
WMT $84.66 -0.6% +0.5% -9.5% -5.5% BELOW 1
COST $889.23 -1.0% -0.9% -13.5% -2.7% BELOW 1
IT Services Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
IBM $235.68 -3.6% -2.0% -6.9% +9.4% BELOW 1
ACN $291.92 -7.3% -5.6% -17.4% -15.2% BELOW 1
Airlines Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
UAL $74.04 -0.5% +0.5% -22.8% -26.8% BELOW 1
DAL $46.14 -1.7% +0.4% -21.6% -23.1% BELOW 1
Hospitality & Travel Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
BKNG $181.71 -0.1% +2.8% -7.9% -4.1% BELOW 1
MAR $242.07 -1.1% +0.7% -11.6% -9.0% BELOW 1
Food & Restaurant Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
SBUX $96.05 +0.1% +1.2% -11.2% +7.5% BELOW 0
MCD $298.04 +0.0% +2.4% +1.3% +6.7% ABOVE 0
Logistics Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
FDX $193.36 -0.4% +1.7% -2.6% -10.0% BELOW 1
UPS $107.68 -0.4% +0.2% +0.6% -5.1% BELOW 2
Industrial Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
HON $202.97 +1.1% +0.7% +0.0% -3.9% BELOW 0
CAT $331.06 -0.7% -1.0% -1.1% -7.0% BELOW 1
Cybersecurity Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
ZS $203.55 -0.2% +2.9% +2.5% +10.7% ABOVE 1
CRWD $92.26 -1.6% +4.3% -9.3% +2.5% BELOW 1
PANW $184.01 -1.9% +0.9% -3.7% +4.8% BELOW 1
Chip Equipment Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
AMAT $152.82 -0.1% -0.8% -10.2% -13.0% BELOW 1
ASML $726.10 -0.1% +2.8% -0.4% -2.9% ABOVE 1
LRCX $76.93 -0.5% -1.4% -9.6% +0.3% BELOW 1
Data Center REITs Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
DLR $146.14 +0.2% +1.9% -7.7% -15.1% BELOW 0
EQIX $828.32 -0.4% +1.7% -6.9% -8.9% BELOW 1
Utilities Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
NEE $68.59 +0.9% -3.3% +0.2% +1.9% ABOVE 0
DUK $115.06 +0.7% +0.0% +4.0% +13.5% ABOVE 0
SO $86.40 +0.4% -0.5% +1.8% +11.9% ABOVE 0
Energy Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
CVX $156.24 +0.4% +4.9% +5.0% +11.4% ABOVE 0
XOM $111.29 +0.4% +3.6% +4.7% +7.5% ABOVE 0
Defense & Aerospace Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
RTX $131.69 -0.6% +3.4% +9.1% +17.7% ABOVE 1
LMT $451.37 -0.8% +0.1% +6.7% +1.3% ABOVE 1
GD $258.33 -0.8% +1.4% +9.3% +2.9% ABOVE 1
Telecom Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
T $25.06 -0.2% +0.8% +0.6% +22.2% ABOVE 1
VZ $39.66 -0.4% +0.4% +2.3% +14.4% ABOVE 2
TMUS $251.35 -0.9% +0.4% -2.7% +21.5% ABOVE 2
Media & Entertainment Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
NFLX $95.08 -0.9% +3.6% -5.2% +8.1% BELOW 1
DIS $97.04 -1.4% +0.2% -9.0% -11.2% BELOW 1
Biotech Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
AMGN $303.17 -0.2% +0.4% +4.0% +21.2% ABOVE 2
GILD $102.45 -1.5% -5.0% -3.0% +17.6% ABOVE 3
Materials Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
APD $281.78 -0.4% +0.3% -5.5% +2.3% BELOW 1
LIN $450.23 -0.4% +0.5% +0.3% +10.7% ABOVE 2
Analog & Embedded Chips Show individual tickers
Ticker Price 1D 5D 20D 50D vs 50MA Down Days
TXN $174.26 -0.6% +2.4% -10.6% -5.3% BELOW 1
MCHP $49.27 -6.5% -4.7% -15.9% -10.6% BELOW 1

Key Stock Movers

Today's biggest movers by absolute percentage change: Accenture (ACN) (IT Services) fell 7.3% to $291.92. Microchip Technology (MCHP) (Analog & Embedded Chips) fell 6.5% to $49.27. IBM (IT Services) fell 3.6% to $235.68. Super Micro (SMCI) (Infrastructure) fell 2.5% to $39.10. ServiceNow (NOW) (Enterprise Software) fell 2.4% to $164.82. These individual stock movements were key drivers of their respective sector performance.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

On the risk side, 12 high-severity alerts are currently active, signaling significant sector declines that warrant portfolio risk management attention. Consider reducing exposure to affected sectors and tightening stop-loss levels.

US Stock Market Outlook

Ahead, breadth metrics remain concerning: only six sectors are above their 50MA and active alerts flag nine high-priority structural declines and five sectors down >10% over 50 days, including the Mag 7 and Chip Supply Chain. With 13 sectors off more than 5% over 20 days and Airlines down -22.2% over that span, positioning should favor liquidity, selective healthcare/energy exposure, and high-quality balance-sheet names while trimming cyclical and longer-duration software risk. Traders should use rallies to de-risk marginal growth positions and watch 50-day trend re-entry or breakdowns for tactical allocation changes.

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