US Stock Market Sector Analysis – Monday, March 31, 2025 BULLISH

The US stock market opened with risk-off tone focused on deepening weakness in AI-related names and capital-intense sectors after fresh breadth alerts flagged 19 sectors trading below their 50-day averages. The Magnificent 7 (AI Spenders) group slid 0.4% on the day and remains -16.9% versus the 50-day, pressuring the S&P 500 leadership. Defensive and income-oriented pockets outperformed: Utilities gained 1.2% and Telecom rose 0.7%, while Chip Equipment and Infrastructure lagged and generated high-severity alerts. Retail strength led by Walmart (WMT) +3.1% to $86.85 provided counterbalance to declines in Enterprise Software (-0.8%) and Cybersecurity (-2.2%).

Market Condition Dashboard

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Wait & Watch

4.23%

falling

Impact

Confidence

Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

$71.48

+3.1% 1D

Impact

Confidence

VIX (Fear Index)

Elevated Caution

22.3

+2.9% 1D

Impact

Confidence

Tracked Stocks Breadth (50DMA)

Strong Cash-Deploy Signal

24%

16 of 68 above 50DMA · -8.8pp 5D

Impact

Confidence

Put/Call Ratio (5D)

Caution

0.75

Call-Heavy · stable

Impact

Confidence

Signal analysis only — not investment advice

Sector Performance (Base=100)

AI and Technology Sector Analysis

AI spending remains the dominant thematic driver for tech positioning today as the Magnificent 7 undercut their 50-day averages and kept sector leadership under review, with Apple (AAPL) $220.96 up 1.9% while NVIDIA (NVDA) $108.23 slipped 1.2%. Chip Supply Chain and Chip Equipment deterioration argues for a cautious read-through on near-term capacity investments, while Microsoft (MSFT) $371.73 and Amazon (AMZN) $190.26 trading below their 50-day averages highlight rotation risks within the AI ecosystem. Infrastructure and enterprise software funding dynamics — where Accenture (ACN) $302.72 rose 2.5% despite Enterprise Software weakness — will determine whether AI capex re-accelerates or remains constrained.

US Stock Sector Overview

Sector	1D	5D	20D	vs 50MA
Mag 7 (AI Spenders)	-0.4%	-7.3%	-6.6%	BELOW
Chip Supply Chain	-0.3%	-9.7%	-7.5%	BELOW
Infrastructure	-1.0%	-10.0%	-10.4%	BELOW
Enterprise Software	-0.8%	-8.0%	-8.2%	BELOW
Finance	+0.8%	-4.5%	-4.0%	BELOW
Healthcare	+1.0%	-0.5%	+0.7%	BELOW
Retail	+2.4%	+2.6%	-8.0%	BELOW
IT Services	+2.2%	+0.3%	-5.8%	BELOW
Airlines	-1.1%	-11.5%	-20.1%	BELOW
Hospitality & Travel	-0.0%	-3.5%	-8.9%	BELOW
Food & Restaurant	+1.0%	+2.0%	-5.2%	BELOW
Logistics	+0.6%	+0.6%	-3.4%	BELOW
Industrial	+0.4%	-2.0%	+1.4%	BELOW
Cybersecurity	-2.2%	-8.9%	-4.9%	BELOW
Chip Equipment	-0.5%	-6.9%	-5.4%	BELOW
Data Center REITs	+1.2%	-4.2%	-8.8%	BELOW
Utilities	+1.2%	+4.4%	+2.4%	ABOVE
Energy	+0.9%	+1.4%	+10.3%	ABOVE
Defense & Aerospace	+1.0%	+0.2%	+3.7%	ABOVE
Telecom	+0.7%	+3.6%	+4.8%	ABOVE
Media & Entertainment	+0.3%	-4.7%	-6.8%	BELOW
Biotech	+0.9%	+2.7%	-0.9%	ABOVE
Materials	+1.2%	+1.2%	-1.1%	BELOW
Analog & Embedded Chips	+0.7%	-4.9%	-12.3%	BELOW

Sector Strength

Retail +2.4% 20d: -8.0%

Walmart (WMT) +3.1% (20d: -7.3%) [<50MA], Costco (COST) +1.7% (20d: -8.8%) [<50MA]

IT Services +2.2% 20d: -5.8%

Accenture (ACN) +2.5% (20d: -9.8%) [<50MA], IBM +1.9% (20d: -1.8%) [<50MA]

Utilities +1.2% 20d: +2.4%

Duke Energy (DUK) +2.1% (20d: +4.8%), Southern Co (SO) +0.9% (20d: +2.3%), NextEra Energy (NEE) +0.6% (20d: +0.1%)

Data Center REITs +1.2% 20d: -8.8%

Equinix (EQIX) +1.5% (20d: -10.4%) [<50MA], Digital Realty (DLR) +0.8% (20d: -7.2%) [<50MA]

Materials +1.2% 20d: -1.1%

Linde (LIN) +1.4% (20d: +1.3%), Air Products (APD) +0.9% (20d: -3.4%) [<50MA]

Sector Warnings

Cybersecurity -2.2% 20d: -4.9%

Zscaler (ZS) -4.2% (20d: +2.4%) [<50MA], CrowdStrike (CRWD) -1.3% (20d: -9.6%) [<50MA], Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -1.2% (20d: -7.5%) [<50MA]

Airlines -1.1% 20d: -20.1% CRITICAL

United (UAL) -1.7% (20d: -19.9%) [<50MA], Delta (DAL) -0.5% (20d: -20.3%) [<50MA]

Infrastructure -1.0% 20d: -10.4% CRITICAL

Vertiv (VRT) -2.8% (20d: -16.4%) [<50MA], Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) -2.3% (20d: -17.4%) [<50MA], Dell (DELL) -1.2% (20d: -3.1%) [<50MA]

Enterprise Software -0.8% 20d: -8.2%

Palantir (PLTR) -1.7% (20d: +0.0%) [<50MA], Salesforce (CRM) -0.6% (20d: -6.6%) [<50MA], Adobe (ADBE) -0.6% (20d: -14.0%) [<50MA]

Chip Equipment -0.5% 20d: -5.4%

ASML -1.8% (20d: -6.4%) [<50MA], Applied Materials (AMAT) +0.0% (20d: -5.1%) [<50MA], Lam Research (LRCX) +0.1% (20d: -4.6%) [<50MA]

Sector Deep Dive

Mag 7 / AI Spenders: The Mag 7 (AI Spenders) fell 0.4% on the day and sits -16.9% relative to the 50-day, signaling that collective momentum has shifted to the downside over the 50-day window. Apple (AAPL) $220.96 bucked the group with a 1.9% gain while remaining below its 50-day, but NVIDIA (NVDA) $108.23 lost 1.2% and is -21.3% versus the 50-day, underscoring chip-driven risk to the theme. Microsoft (MSFT) $371.73 declined 0.9% and trades -12.3% versus the 50-day, reinforcing the 50-day trend as the primary horizon for risk management in AI exposure.

Chip Supply Chain & Equipment: Chip Supply Chain was down 0.3% and Chip Equipment fell 0.5% today, with both sectors flashing high alerts and sitting well below their 50-day averages (-20.8% and -15.2% respectively). ASML (ASML) $655.45 declined 1.8% and remains under pressure across the 50-day window, while Texas Instruments (TXN) $173.32 rose 1.9% but still shows loss of conviction over 50 days in a sector where the 50-day trend is the dominant macro risk signal. The 50-day weakness argues for selective exposure and tight stops on equipment and supply-chain names until a clear trend reversal is visible.

Infrastructure & Data Center REITs: Infrastructure led the active alerts list, down -1.0% on the day and -16.5% over 50 days, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) $15.01 falling 2.3% and Vertiv (VRT) $72.10 sliding 2.8% intraday. Data Center REITs managed a 1.2% gain today but remain -14.8% on the 50-day horizon, reflecting mixed flows into capex-light versus capex-heavy digital infrastructure. The persistent 50-day downtrends suggest de-risking for cyclical infrastructure exposure until earnings or macro data indicate stabilization.

Travel & Airlines / Hospitality: Airlines fell 1.1% today and are alarming on the 50-day view at -34.6%, with the sector flagged [LOW] for multiple consecutive down days below the 50-day moving average. Hospitality & Travel also sits below its 50-day at -10.1% and is contributing to the negative breadth picture across discretionary sectors. Given the severity of the 50-day declines, the sector analysis favors defensive positioning and layered opportunistic entries only on clear trend improvements or earnings beats.

Market Breadth Analysis

US stock market breadth analysis shows 5 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average, while 19 are below. With the majority of sectors below the 50-day MA, medium-term momentum is deteriorating. The 20-day breadth shows 18 sectors in negative territory, pointing to widespread selling pressure.

Interactive Charts

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100

50-Day Sector Performance

1-Day vs 5-Day Sector Change

Active Alerts

HIGH Infrastructure down -10.4% over 20 days

HIGH Airlines down -20.1% over 20 days

HIGH Analog & Embedded Chips down -12.3% over 20 days

HIGH Mag 7 (AI Spenders) down -16.9% over 50 days

HIGH Chip Supply Chain down -20.8% over 50 days

HIGH Infrastructure down -16.5% over 50 days

HIGH Airlines down -34.6% over 50 days

HIGH Chip Equipment down -15.2% over 50 days

HIGH 13 sectors declining >5% over 20 days: Mag 7 (AI Spenders), Chip Supply Chain, Infrastructure, Enterprise Software, Retail, IT Services, Airlines, Hospitality & Travel, Food & Restaurant, Chip Equipment, Data Center REITs, Media & Entertainment, Analog & Embedded Chips

HIGH 9 sectors declining >10% over 50 days: Mag 7 (AI Spenders), Chip Supply Chain, Infrastructure, Airlines, Hospitality & Travel, Logistics, Chip Equipment, Data Center REITs, Analog & Embedded Chips

LOW Airlines below 50-day MA with avg 5 consecutive down days

Stock-Level Detail

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
AAPL	$220.96	+1.9%	-0.7%	-5.8%	-3.3%	BELOW	0
GOOG	$155.60	+0.1%	-9.6%	-9.4%	-20.8%	BELOW	0
META	$574.04	-0.1%	-8.0%	-9.9%	-5.9%	BELOW	4
MSFT	$371.73	-0.9%	-5.0%	-3.4%	-12.3%	BELOW	2
NVDA	$108.23	-1.2%	-10.2%	-6.6%	-21.3%	BELOW	5
AMZN	$190.26	-1.3%	-7.5%	-6.6%	-15.8%	BELOW	2
TSLA	$259.16	-1.7%	-10.1%	-4.7%	-39.2%	BELOW	2

Chip Supply Chain Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
QCOM	$149.54	+0.6%	-4.1%	-0.0%	-6.2%	BELOW	0
TSM	$163.59	+0.5%	-8.2%	-7.4%	-21.2%	BELOW	0
INTC	$22.71	+0.0%	-6.2%	+6.5%	+5.7%	ABOVE	0
AMD	$102.74	-0.5%	-10.5%	+2.0%	-15.4%	BELOW	4
MRVL	$61.32	-0.8%	-14.1%	-30.3%	-50.6%	BELOW	5
ARM	$106.79	-0.9%	-14.1%	-12.8%	-28.5%	BELOW	5
AVGO	$165.82	-1.0%	-11.1%	-10.4%	-29.3%	BELOW	6

Infrastructure Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
CSCO	$59.70	+1.4%	+1.2%	-2.5%	+2.5%	BELOW	0
SMCI	$34.24	-0.1%	-15.7%	-12.5%	+11.1%	BELOW	6
DELL	$89.21	-1.2%	-7.8%	-3.1%	-16.5%	BELOW	2
HPE	$15.01	-2.3%	-6.6%	-17.4%	-32.8%	BELOW	4
VRT	$72.10	-2.8%	-21.2%	-16.4%	-46.8%	BELOW	5

Enterprise Software Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NOW	$159.23	-0.2%	-7.6%	-12.1%	-25.7%	BELOW	4
ADBE	$383.53	-0.6%	-5.0%	-14.0%	-10.8%	BELOW	4
CRM	$265.27	-0.6%	-7.0%	-6.6%	-17.3%	BELOW	4
PLTR	$84.40	-1.7%	-12.5%	+0.0%	+17.6%	BELOW	5

Finance Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
JPM	$238.07	+1.0%	-2.3%	-2.0%	-5.3%	BELOW	0
GS	$532.85	+0.6%	-6.8%	-6.0%	-12.3%	BELOW	0

Healthcare Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UNH	$506.49	+1.5%	+2.0%	+10.8%	+3.2%	ABOVE	0
LLY	$818.43	+0.4%	-3.1%	-9.3%	+14.0%	BELOW	0

Retail Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
WMT	$86.85	+3.1%	+3.6%	-7.3%	-4.3%	BELOW	0
COST	$939.26	+1.7%	+1.7%	-8.8%	+0.4%	BELOW	0

IT Services Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
ACN	$302.72	+2.5%	+1.0%	-9.8%	-11.5%	BELOW	0
IBM	$240.86	+1.9%	-0.5%	-1.8%	+11.4%	BELOW	0

Airlines Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
DAL	$42.85	-0.5%	-10.4%	-20.3%	-33.6%	BELOW	5
UAL	$69.05	-1.7%	-12.5%	-19.9%	-35.7%	BELOW	5

Hospitality & Travel Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
MAR	$235.50	+0.5%	-3.4%	-12.0%	-13.9%	BELOW	0
BKNG	$182.42	-0.6%	-3.6%	-5.8%	-6.3%	BELOW	4

Food & Restaurant Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
MCD	$303.25	+1.7%	+1.8%	+2.2%	+11.8%	ABOVE	0
SBUX	$94.90	+0.4%	+2.3%	-12.5%	+3.7%	BELOW	0

Logistics Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
FDX	$191.45	+0.9%	+1.1%	-1.1%	-10.9%	BELOW	0
UPS	$101.25	+0.3%	+0.0%	-5.8%	-14.0%	BELOW	0

Industrial Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
HON	$203.80	+0.7%	-0.2%	+1.8%	-4.4%	BELOW	0
CAT	$324.71	+0.0%	-3.7%	+0.9%	-14.3%	BELOW	0

Cybersecurity Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
PANW	$170.64	-1.2%	-10.2%	-7.5%	-3.7%	BELOW	4
CRWD	$88.14	-1.3%	-8.4%	-9.6%	-1.2%	BELOW	4
ZS	$198.42	-4.2%	-8.0%	+2.4%	+5.8%	BELOW	4

Chip Equipment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LRCX	$72.12	+0.1%	-6.4%	-4.6%	-9.2%	BELOW	0
AMAT	$143.65	+0.0%	-5.5%	-5.1%	-24.3%	BELOW	0
ASML	$655.45	-1.8%	-8.8%	-6.4%	-12.2%	BELOW	5

Data Center REITs Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
EQIX	$792.95	+1.5%	-3.1%	-10.4%	-10.5%	BELOW	0
DLR	$138.31	+0.8%	-5.4%	-7.2%	-19.0%	BELOW	0

Utilities Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA
DUK	$116.79	+2.1%	+5.1%	+4.8%	+12.7%	ABOVE
SO	$88.30	+0.9%	+4.8%	+2.3%	+10.5%	ABOVE
NEE	$68.34	+0.6%	+3.4%	+0.1%	+1.0%	ABOVE

Energy Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
XOM	$114.20	+1.0%	+2.0%	+10.6%	+6.8%	ABOVE	0
CVX	$158.63	+0.7%	+0.8%	+10.1%	+4.8%	ABOVE	0

Defense & Aerospace Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA
GD	$265.02	+1.3%	+1.9%	+8.7%	+2.2%	ABOVE
LMT	$432.00	+1.2%	+1.0%	-0.5%	-8.2%	BELOW
RTX	$129.72	+0.6%	-2.4%	+2.9%	+9.9%	ABOVE

Telecom Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA
VZ	$41.12	+1.0%	+4.3%	+5.8%	+17.0%	ABOVE
TMUS	$260.81	+0.7%	+3.1%	+0.8%	+22.2%	ABOVE
T	$26.46	+0.4%	+3.6%	+7.9%	+26.9%	ABOVE

Media & Entertainment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
DIS	$96.88	+0.6%	-2.9%	-9.5%	-7.8%	BELOW	0
NFLX	$93.25	-0.1%	-6.5%	-4.1%	+8.7%	BELOW	2

Biotech Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
AMGN	$299.81	+1.5%	+1.5%	-0.2%	+15.4%	ABOVE	0
GILD	$108.44	+0.2%	+3.9%	-1.7%	+22.9%	ABOVE	0

Materials Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LIN	$457.99	+1.4%	+1.8%	+1.3%	+7.2%	ABOVE	0
APD	$283.71	+0.9%	+0.6%	-3.4%	-7.2%	BELOW	0

Analog & Embedded Chips Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TXN	$173.32	+1.9%	-2.3%	-7.8%	-5.9%	BELOW	0
MCHP	$46.77	-0.6%	-7.5%	-16.7%	-15.9%	BELOW	5

Key Stock Movers

Today's biggest movers by absolute percentage change: Zscaler (ZS) (Cybersecurity) fell 4.2% to $198.42. Walmart (WMT) (Retail) rose 3.1% to $86.85. Vertiv (VRT) (Infrastructure) fell 2.8% to $72.10. Accenture (ACN) (IT Services) rose 2.5% to $302.72. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) (Infrastructure) fell 2.3% to $15.01. These individual stock movements were key drivers of their respective sector performance.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

On the risk side, 10 high-severity alerts are currently active, signaling significant sector declines that warrant portfolio risk management attention. Consider reducing exposure to affected sectors and tightening stop-loss levels.

US Stock Market Outlook

Forward-looking positioning is defensive: active alerts count is elevated with eight [HIGH] sector alerts and 13 sectors declining more than 5% over 20 days, and only 5 sectors trading above their 50-day moving averages. Breadth metrics show 19 sectors below the 50MA, reinforcing the 50-day trend as the primary risk filter for S&P 500 exposure. Tactical guidance is to favor cash, high-quality defensives and selective retail winners while waiting for confirmation of 50-day trend reversals in AI spenders, chip supply chain, and infrastructure before adding cyclical exposure.

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